Is the rise of amp modelling the death knell for guitar pedals?

One pedal manufacturer has likened modellers to what Napster did to record sales

In 2014, the Billboard Hot 100 UK singles charts began counting song streams alongside record sales. It was recognition of a changing music industry. With the rise of streaming services – Spotify, Apple Music, Deezer etc. – record sales were down. Right now, a similar change is affecting the pedal market.

Many people stopped buying CDs altogether, with their circa £10 a month subscription fee putting a universe of music at their fingertips. And those apps had arrived at a time when record sales were already gravely malnourished due to the rise of piracy. The picture had been growing bleaker for a while.

Brian Wampler, the man behind Wampler pedals, has now drawn parallels with how the likes of Napster – the pirating service Metallica famously sued in 2000 – to the rise of digital modellers that cram a legion of amps, cabs, and pedals into one convenient unit. He fears it could be the death knell for many pedal makers.

The changing tide

The crux of Wampler’s fear is this: With more and more players turning to modellers – incredibly, the 21 top-selling amps on Reverb in 2024 were all modellers – why would you need to buy more physical pedals? Their little boxes have impressive impressions of everything they need baked in already. Just like how Napster and Spotify eradicated the need to nip down to your local record store to check out the new Spice Girls or Carcass album.

“I think, really, everyone in the pedal market is concerned,” he tells Product of Music. “If anything, I think it's going to take a big chunk of the market... as well as [create a] two-band market.

“I always look at things like there are two paths: you can always stick your head in the sand and ignore it and think, ‘It's not going to happen to me,’ and then wonder what happens in five or 10 years. Or you can say it's going to happen. I need to make a pivot here.”

For Wampler and many other firms, plugins have been the thing to pivot to: digitized versions of their best-selling stompboxes. Boss are another big name to have recently made the jump, although their subscription service will scare off those wanting to make a one-off purchase.

It’s very much an adapt and survive siege mentality type of survival currently dictating many of these firms’ actions. But not all evidence suggests that death, riding his Neural DSP-branded white horse, is about to swing his scythe at the pedal market.

Why the rise in vinyl offers hope

The invention of the cassette, and then later the CD, was supposed to be a death sentence for vinyl. The format was bulky and old hat. But, sometime after they'd fallen out of fashion, there was a revival. In a world where album covers were relegated to small pictures on phone screens, thousands of music lovers young and old turned to vinyl, craving an antidote to the music industry's digitalization. They wanted their money to go somewhere.

In 2023, vinyl sales outstripped CDs for the first time since 1987. It was the 16th consecutive year of growth, with 71% of that figure being physical format releases. This resurgence, with people wanting something they can touch, feel, admire, and appreciate, shows that the pedal market may not need to be looked at like a dog that's about to be put down.

While trends will always dip and dive, there will always be counter movements. And while digitized pedals will get closer and closer to the real things, they’re condemned to a name on a screen – there’ll be a legion of players turning to physical pedals, analogue gear they can get granular with. Because it’s refreshing.  

It may be boutique firms that benefit first, but when those changes in fortune eventually start sweeping through the industry, budget firms – we’re looking at you, Behringer – may also feel a resurgence as those with smaller budgets look to get in on the hype, too.  

It’s also worth noting that, with the rise of vinyl and the public understanding that artists get crappy payouts for streams, music sales hit a 20-year high in January this year. Releases for major acts like Billie Eilish and Taylor Swift – and their penchant for different coloured vinyl variants – have buoyed the market. People want tangible goods, but they also recognize the need to support the artists they love through more direct means.

Similarly, modellers may soon rule the stage – they’re well on their way – because of their travel-friendliness and versatility, but it’s very likely we’ll see pedals – the real deal stuff – rule the studio too. Why have an amp profile when you can blast the real thing?

Wampler’s analogy is fair, but the snowball effect it could have on the industry doesn’t necessarily mean that the end is nigh.

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